Original 5002 Big Pilot future bright?

my personal opinion --absolutely...

Hi hoser,

I have no crystal ball to predict any pricing, but my experience may be broader than some others.

When the 5002 came out, it was radical --one of the largest watches available, over 2mm larger even than Panerai. Despite that, the watch always was in short supply --dealers couldn't keep them in stock, and they literally were sold out in a day if there wasn't a waiting list.

IWC doesn't have one "flagship" watch, but in my opinion that one model became more emblematic of the brand than any other. Not just on the 'Net (which really is a somewhat small and not-necessarily-representative audience), but worldwide.

Even today, the 5002 --used-- sells for about what most people paid for their new one. That's probably true for only a handful of other models, a few of which (like the Jubilee Portugieser, as one atypical example) have zoomed in price. It's resale price as a percentage of new price is among the best for contemporary IWC's, except for some limited editions.

The large quanities of 5004 probably create some limit on 5002 pricing. When people see what 5002's sell for they often opt for the 5004, after all the 5004 is a new watch, with a warranty and promoted by a regular dealer with a live salesperson. My son, for example, decided he wanted a 5004 after trying out my 5002.

The 5004 is often considered (and the 5002 likewise was considered) as "money in the bank" for many retailers. Like Daytonas, they are quick sells. That is one reason why there are so many special editions of this model --it's an effective way to "reward" a retailer or a market, which is what they want and what is financially good for IWC. In fact, somewhat increased 5004 production and increased 5004 special editions were part of IWC's strategy to weather the 2009 recession. And it worked.

I can't tell whether there might be a trend to smaller watches in the future, or whether the continuing 5004 production will limit future 5002 pricing. But if one has to pick "winners" in the IWC line, based not on personal preferences but rather such data as sales time/turnover relative to price and production quantities, there is no greater winner than the Big Pilot's Watch. To me that is the greatest indicator of future vitality.

And while choosing the future "winner" between the 5004 and the 5002 might involve some personal preference, if they're both discontinued at some time I would clearly say the 5002. Not because it's "better" (although I personally like the dial more) but because it's rarer. To my thinking, that makes the prognosis for future value as higher.

Regards,
Michael
P.S. Please realize that I'm not stating what IWC's I subjectively like most or more, but rather explaining that the Big Pilot's Watch in general, and the 5002 in particular, has a sales record that may serve as a future indicator of economic vitality.